Publications and Working Papers


Preble, Keith A. Under Review. “‘Two’s company, three’s a crowd: the logic of three-level games in Southeast Asia.”

Preble, Keith A. and Zheng Wang. Under Review. “Do Crosscutting cleavages affect the quality of democracy?”

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2020. “Going Fishing Versus Hunting Whales: Explaining Variation in the United States’ Enforcement of Economic Sanctions.” Security Studies 29(2): 231-267.

  • Data set for Security Studies paper can be found on the Harvard Dataverse: Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2020, “OFAC Civil Penalties and Enforcement Actions (2003-2019)”,, Harvard Dataverse.

ForthcomingEarly, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2020. “Economic statecraft.” Oxford Handbook of Grand Strategy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Public Scholarship:

Early, Bryan R., and Keith A. Preble. 2020. “Enforcing US Economic Sanctions: Why Whale Hunting Works.” The Washington Quarterly 43(1): 159-175. doi: 10.1080/0163660X.2020.1736881

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2019. “Trends in U.S. Sanctions Enforcement During the Trump Administration.” Compliance & Enforcement, blog:

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2018. “Enforcing Economic Sanctions: Analyzing How OFAC Implements U.S. Sanctions Policies.” SSRN.

Preble, Keith and Bryan R. Early. 2018. “‘Sanctions Busting’: The Risks and Rewards to those Trying to Circumvent the System.” June 15.

Early, Bryan R. and Keith Preble. 2017. “America needs Europe’s help with sanctions. It may not get it.” Monkey Cage (via Washington Post). 24 August. URL:

Working Papers:

Preble, Keith A. and Zheng Wang. 2019. “Do cross-cutting cleavages affect
democratization? An investigation into democracy during the Third Wave, 1972-2002.”

Preble, Keith. 2018. “Sanctions busting, ”safety valves,” and norms: the effects of intra-EU trade on sanctions busting.”
Data and R script(s) available on request.
Accepted to NY State Political Science Association Annual Meeting at Wagner College on April 13-14, 2018; Accepted at APSA Annual Meeting, Boston, MA on August 31-September 2, 2018

Preble, Keith. 2017. “Two’s company, three’s a crowd”: a logic of “three-level games” in Southeast Asia

Master’s Theses:

Preble, Keith A. 2017. “Abandoning policies of hostility and isolation: a punctuated equilibrium model of foreign policy change in U.S. foreign relations.” Master’s thesis. Northwestern University.

Preble, Keith A. 2014. “Italy and the Suez Canal Crisis (1955-1956): The Foundations of a Multilateralist Foreign Policy.” Master’s thesis. St. John’s University.