Publications and Working Papers

Peer-Reviewed (Articles and Book Chapters):

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2021. “Chapter 23: Grand Strategy and the Tools of Economic Statecraft.” Oxford Handbook of Grand StrategyEds. Thierry Balzacq and Ronald R. Krebs. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2020. “Going Fishing Versus Hunting Whales: Explaining Variation in the United States’ Enforcement of Economic Sanctions.” Security Studies 29(2): 231-267.

  • Data set for Security Studies paper can be found on the Harvard Dataverse: Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2020, “OFAC Civil Penalties and Enforcement Actions (2003-2019)”,, Harvard Dataverse.

Public Scholarship:

Brockmann, Kolja and Keith A. Preble. 2021. “Mitigating Humanitarian Impact in a Complex Sanctions Environment: The European Union and the Sanctions Regimes against Iran.” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Early, Bryan R., and Keith A. Preble. 2021. “The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Sanctions Enforcement.” War on the Rocks.

Early, Bryan R., and Keith A. Preble. 2020. “Enforcing US Economic Sanctions: Why Whale Hunting Works.” The Washington Quarterly 43(1): 159-175. doi: 10.1080/0163660X.2020.1736881

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2019. “Trends in U.S. Sanctions Enforcement During the Trump Administration.” Compliance & Enforcement, blog:

Early, Bryan R. and Keith A. Preble. 2018. “Enforcing Economic Sanctions: Analyzing How OFAC Implements U.S. Sanctions Policies.” SSRN.

Preble, Keith and Bryan R. Early. 2018. “‘Sanctions Busting’: The Risks and Rewards to those Trying to Circumvent the System.” June 15.

Early, Bryan R. and Keith Preble. 2017. “America needs Europe’s help with sanctions. It may not get it.” Monkey Cage (via Washington Post). 24 August. URL:

Under Review:

Preble, Keith A. and Charmaine N. Willis. 2021. “Trading with Pariahs: Economics Sanctions and North Korea.”

Preble, Keith A. 2020. “Affordable Adjustments and Exploitable Opportunities: The Search for Alternatives to Sanctions Busting Trade.” SSRN

Preble, Keith A. 2020. “Two’s company, three’s a crowd”: a logic of “three-level games” in Southeast Asia

Preble, Keith A. and Zheng Wang. 2020.Do Crosscutting cleavages affect the quality of democracy?”

Working Papers:

Preble, Keith A. and Bryan R. Early. “Branded: Enforcing Economic Sanctions by Tarnishing Corporate Reputations.”

Preble, Keith A. 2021. “A Farewell to Arms: Arms Embargo Busting and Arms Control in Europe and the European Union.”

Preble, Keith A. and Charmaine Willis. 2021. “Trading with Pariahs: International Trade and North Korean Sanctions.” SSRN.

Preble, Keith A. and Zheng Wang. 2019. “Do cross-cutting cleavages affect democratization?”

Preble, Keith. 2018. “Sanctions busting, ”safety valves,” and norms: the effects of intra-EU trade on sanctions busting.”
Data and R script(s) available on request.
Accepted to NY State Political Science Association Annual Meeting at Wagner College on April 13-14, 2018; Accepted at APSA Annual Meeting, Boston, MA on August 31-September 2, 2018

Master’s Theses:

Preble, Keith A. 2017. “Abandoning policies of hostility and isolation: a punctuated equilibrium model of foreign policy change in U.S. foreign relations.” Master’s thesis. Northwestern University.

Preble, Keith A. 2014. “Italy and the Suez Canal Crisis (1955-1956): The Foundations of a Multilateralist Foreign Policy.” Master’s thesis. St. John’s University.